Kamala Harris' Chances vs. Donald Trump, According to Polls

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After Joe Biden announced he won't run in the 2024 presidential election —following weeks of growing pressure from within his own party—attention has turned to his vice president, Kamala Harris , who he has endorsed to be the Democratic Party nominee, and how she would fare in a November matchup against Donald Trump .
Over recent weeks, as speculation mounted over Biden's future, a number of pollsters have examined how Harris would perform in a straight matchup against Trump—some of which showed her slightly behind and some a little ahead of the Republican nominee.
Concern over the age and mental agility of 81-year-old Biden erupted in the aftermath of the first presidential debate on June 27, during which the president appeared at several points to lose his train of thought mid-sentence. In the weeks that followed a growing number of prominent Democrats , including lawmakers and actor George Clooney, urged Biden to step aside from the race so his party can select another nominee.
A YouGov poll of 1,582 U.S. adult citizens conducted between July 13 and 16 found 39 percent of respondents would vote for Harris if she was the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate, against 44 percent for Trump. This put Harris slightly behind Biden, who the survey found would lose to Trump by 41 percent of the vote against 43 percent.

When asked if Harris would be more or less likely to win against Trump than Biden, 15 percent answered more likely, 26 percent about as likely, 39 percent less likely and 20 percent were unsure.

Ipsos polled 992 registered voters across the U.S. on July 16 for Reuters. The survey placed Trump ahead of Biden in a presidential matchup by 43 percent of the vote against 41 percent. However, once Harris was subbed in as the candidate she tied with Trump on 44 percent.

Between July 2 and 4, 1,000 registered voters were polled for Politico by Bendixen & Amandi International. The survey found Harris one point ahead of Trump in a presidential matchup with 42 percent of the vote against 41 percent, while Biden was one point behind on 42 percent against 43 percent.

A CNN poll of 1,045 registered voters, conducted by SSRS between June 28 and 30, found Trump ahead of Biden nationwide with 49 percent of the vote against 43 percent. Trump also polled ahead of Harris but by a smaller margin, with the backing of 47 percent of registered voters against 45 percent.
Newsweekhas contacted Harris' press secretary and the Trump campaign by email.

Update 7/21/2024 2:59 p.m. ET: Additional information added.

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